Iran Withdraws from Agreement to Cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency

What Happened?

Iran’s president signed a law which will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency effective immediately. Early this year Iran’s parliament had voted to approve the measure, which has now become law with their president’s signature. 

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the United Nations could not expect a return to normal so quickly after the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Adding that Iran could not guarantee the safety of U.N. inspectors assigned to conduct reviews of Iran’s nuclear program.

Why it Matters

The withdrawal is likely a political move by Tehran calculated to give Iran additional leverage in the future. When and if negotiations resume over Iran’s nuclear program, Iran could use returning to an agreement with the IAEA as a bargaining chip during those talks. For now, Iran has indicated it will not resume negotiations either with the United States or the United Nations due to the airstrikes on its nuclear facilities.

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While the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes appear to have substantially damaged Iran’s nuclear program. If the current regime in Tehran seeks to rebuild and continue the pursuit of nuclear weapons, then the recent strikes would only have been successful in buying more time. Future airstrikes on Iran without a subsequent bombing campaign by Israel could be more difficult if the Iranians also rebuild their air defense capabilities.

Just prior to the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, the IAEA ruled that Iran was not in compliance with its nuclear agreement. Iran countered that the IAEA ruling was politically motivated, and it is true the U.S. and its European allies put pressure on the IAEA to rule against Iran.

But even with the political pressure, the facts still supported the IAEA ruling, because Iran had been enriching uranium far beyond the levels required for a nuclear energy program. As the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists noted, the high levels of uranium enrichment being done by Iran could only be used for weapons making.

So where does that leave the Iranian nuclear program? For now, it has been crippled by the destruction of its three main facilities. But without any international monitoring, including the IAEA, it will be more difficult in the future to determine whether or not Iran has resumed its enrichment activities. With no monitoring and the desire by Tehran to continue, Iran could resume its efforts to seek nuclear weapons but this time in secret.

How it Affects You

The Iranian threat has been diminished but not vanquished. Pakistan built its nuclear program in secrecy, and the lesson Iran may learn is dispense with any international cooperation in order to pursue a nuclear weapons program like Pakistan did.