Iran Rejects U.S. Proposal for a Nuclear Deal

What Happened?

Iran’s Supreme Leader and Foreign Minister both rejected a proposed nuclear deal with the United States. The measure, offered by U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, was described as vague by the Iranians, but as detailed by the Trump Administration.

While the Trump Administration has said there must be no enrichment of uranium by Iran, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, ‘Continuing enrichment on Iranian soil is our red line. Enrichment has now become a matter of national pride and honor for Iranians.’

While the official Iranian response to the U.S. offer will be issued in the next few days, it remains unclear whether further talks will be held after that.

Why it Matters

President Trump has threatened Iran with military action if no new nuclear deal can be reached. Iran’s response, thus far, indicates they are not willing to stop enrichment activities, which appears to leave little room for further talks.

A common question is why does oil rich Iran need nuclear energy? While its true Iran is an oil rich country, with the third largest proven amount of oil reserves in the world, much of the oil it produces is exported. Iran exports oil to provide revenue for its government and armed forces, which would be severely strapped for cash without money from oil sales. 

That leaves Iran’s domestic market in need of energy sources, so Iran’s claim that it needs nuclear power to provide energy has a basis in fact. The problem is the process used to create fuel for nuclear reactors can also be used to create nuclear weapons. Uranium processed for nuclear power plants can also be further refined into weapons grade ore, which can then be used for nuclear weapons. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a fatwa, or religious ruling, against the use of nuclear weapons, saying the use of such weapons was un-Islamic because they do not discriminate between soldiers and civilians. Israel believes the ruling was just a cover to allow Iran to secretly develop nuclear weapons. There are members of Iran’s government who believe the use of nuclear weapons is un-Islamic, but there are others, particularly the Revolutionary Guards Corps, who would like for Iran to have nuclear weapons to use against Israel. 

To date Iran has never tested a working nuclear weapon. The U.S. possesses instruments which can detect a nuclear explosion anywhere in the world, and thus far none have been registered in Iran. If Iran can build nuclear weapons, thus far they appear not to have done so.

How it Affects You

While President Trump has threatened Iran with military action if there is no nuclear deal, the U.S. has few good options when it comes to the use of force. Iran is much larger and more populous than Iraq, and it has much better air defenses. Additionally, Iran possesses a large arsenal of missiles which could hit all U.S. military bases in the Middle East. 

Iran’s nuclear sites are dispersed to a number of locations, all of which are well defended, which means a single airstrike could not destroy them. It would take a sustained bombing campaign lasting months to accomplish that, and Iran would surely respond by attacking U.S. bases in the Middle East, which would mean war between Iran and the U.S.

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Disclosures

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