Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Launch New Attacks as Middle East War Continues

What Happened?

Israel and Iran have both launched fresh waves of attacks against each other as the war in the Middle East continues to intensify. Over the weekend Iranian missiles and drones hit oil infrastructure in several Persian Gulf countries, and at least two Israeli towns were also hit by Iranian projectiles.

The United States military launched new air strikes on the key Iranian oil hub of Kharg Island, though only Iranian military targets on the island were hit, leaving the oil processing components intact.

The war between Iran, Israel and the United States is now in its third week and has reportedly killed over two thousand people in Iran. There have been thirteen American servicemen killed and over a hundred wounded. Israel has not yet made its casualty figures public.

Why it Matters

The war in the Middle East continues to intensify and to have a wider impact on the global economy. Targets in Iran being hit by the U.S. and Israel appear to have shifted from primarily Iranian military installations and equipment to the regime’s security and secret police apparatus.

Iran continues to restrict commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil was once again trading near one hundred dollars per barrel by Monday as a result. Neither Iran, Israel, nor the U.S. gave any indications they planned to stop hostilities anytime soon.

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By targeting Iran’s secret police and security apparatus, U.S. and Israeli forces are undertaking their most direct action yet to inspire another uprising against the regime by the Iranian people. In January it was Iran’s secret police and security forces that slaughtered protesters, and those are the organizations that would need to be eliminated for regime change to have any chance of success.

Even if Iran’s military is heavily damaged, the secret police and regime security organizations would still be able to quash additional protests or social unrest.

The U.S. attack on Kharg Island was also a warning to Iran that the U.S. military has the capability to cripple Iranian oil production for the foreseeable future. Iran processes most of its exports through that facility, and if the U.S. destroyed it Iran’s ability to export oil would be severely damaged.

Since Iran relies on revenue from oil exports to fund its government, the loss of its export capability would be devastating for Iran’s economy and system of governance. That Kharg Island was attacked at all is a significant escalation of the conflict.

How it Affects You

The war in the Middle East is likely to continue for several more weeks, and as the conflict grows, so will the difficulty of ending it. As more countries get involved, the complexity of finding an exit will increase. At the moment, regime change in Iran appears unlikely, but that could change quickly if conditions change in Iran.

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