Iran and Israel Attacks Increase, Intensifying the War Between Them

What Happened?

Iran and Israel both increased the number of attacks against the other yesterday, with Iran sending barrages of missiles while the Israeli Air Force expanded its attacks to over two hundred targets. Neither Israel nor Iran exhibited much interest in the growing international calls to de-escalate the situation. 

Thus far hostilities between the two countries have killed two dozen in Israel and more than two hundred in Iran. In addition to over one hundred military sites targeted by the Israeli Air Force, nearly one hundred infrastructure targets in Iran were struck as well.

Why it Matters

The increase in the frequency and intensity of attacks suggests the exchange of air and missile strikes by Israel and Iran may be far from over. Israel has stated it will continue striking targets in Iran for weeks, which could expand the number of targets hit inside Iran into the hundreds. 

While Israel has stated that the primary objective of Operation Rising Lion is to destroy Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, regime change may become more important as hostilities continue. Yesterday many residents of Tehran fled the capital, only to be stopped and searched by Iranian security forces looking for Israeli spies. Which means the Iranian people are now being menaced by their own government and the Israeli military, not ideal conditions for the uprising Israel hopes for.

If the current Iranian regime remains in power after Israel’s air campaign ends, there is little doubt it will seek revenge against Israel. No regime has ever been toppled by air power alone, and as capable as the Israeli military is, doing so in Iran may even be beyond their abilities. Yet leaving the regime in place guarantees the threat against Israel will continue, so the pressure may grow on Israel as the conflict continues to openly embrace regime change in Iran. 

The current regime is unpopular in Iran. When the Islamic Revolution took place in Iran in 1979, the Iranian people believed they would get a somewhat democratic regime, because that’s what Ayatollah Khomeini told them. But he lied to the Iranian people and installed a dictatorial regime where religious jurists like himself make all the governing decisions, and the people are regarded as mere brutes who have to be controlled with an iron fist. Most Iranians still feel betrayed, yet fear of the police state keeps them in line. 

Israel’s attacks may generate sympathy for the regime and anger towards Israel if the war drags on too long, which would work against a popular uprising in Iran. But if Israel can decimate the regime’s armed forces and leadership quickly, Iranians could seize the opportunity to overthrow the Islamist regime while it’s been at least temporarily defanged.

How it Affects You

The war between Israel and Iran has the potential to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East for decades, and perhaps even generations. As Fouad Ajami said, in the Middle East, people tend to back the stronger horse, and an Israeli victory over Iran would unquestionably make Israel the dominant regional power for the foreseeable future.