International Atomic Energy Agency Says Iran Not Complying

What Happened?

For the first time in over twenty years, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a resolution stating that Iran is not complying with its nuclear non-proliferation obligations. 

In a message posted online, the IAEA said, ‘The Board of Governors finds that Iran's failures to uphold its obligations to provide the Agency with full cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material constitutes non-compliance.’

The resolution was submitted by the United States, Britain, France and Germany and passed with 19 votes of the 35-nation board. Russia, China and Burkina Faso voted against. Iran responded angrily, calling the vote political and claiming the resolution ‘completely called into question the credibility and prestige’ of the IAEA. 

Why it Matters

The IAEA ruling comes at a time when U.S.-Iranian tensions have grown, as have tensions between Israel and Iran. According to the Trump Administration, Israel may be preparing to launch attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, the U.S. has reduced the number of personnel in the Middle East, especially at locations that might be targeted by Iran in retaliation for an Israeli strike.

In response to the IAEA resolution, Iran’s Foreign Minister said that Iran would now launch a new enrichment center in a secure location and replace the first-generation machines at another site with more modern equipment. Iran’s behavior appears erratic, first criticizing the ruling against them then threatening to do exactly what the IAEA resolution accused them of doing. 

An Israeli strike on Iran is not without precedent. In 1982, the Israeli Air Force launched an airstrike on a nuclear facility in Osirak, Iraq, that was being run under the regime of Saddam Hussein. In 2007, the Israeli Air Force attacked and destroyed sites in Syria believed to be developing nuclear weapons for then Syrian President Asad. Israel does have the means to carry out attacks against Iran.

In Iraq and Syria, the targets were confined to a single location, whereas Iran has dispersed its nuclear facilities to a number of different places. Thanks to Russian military aid, Iran’s nuclear sites are also likely to be well-defended against attack from the air. Still, the Israeli’s have a history of overcoming obstacles and accomplishing missions that were deemed impossible beforehand.

Iran does have a point about international politics, since the U.S. and Britain have been publicly pressuring the IAEA to rule against Iran. That doesn’t make the ruling inaccurate, but it does create the perception that politics played a pivotal role in the IAEA’s decision.

How it Affects You

A military strike against Iran by Israel would likely trigger a military response by Iran, which could once again threaten to send the Middle East into a large and destructive regional war. The IAEA ruling gives U.S. negotiators some leverage against Iran, but based on Iran’s initial response diplomacy may soon be over anyway.