Increased Russian Military Activity on Finnish Border Spotted by Satellites

What Happened?

Satellite imagery shows a recent buildup of military personnel and equipment in several locations on the Russian side of the Russia – Finland border. The images, which were first released by Swedish broadcaster SVT, show activity at four locations inside Russia - Kamenka, Petrozavodsk, Severomorsk-2, and Olenya. Kamenka is the closest to Finland at about thirty-five miles from the Finnish border.

‘When we applied for NATO membership, Russia said it would take such steps. We are now seeing that happen,’ Sweden's Chief of Defense Michael Claesson said. Finland's Deputy Chief of Defense, Lieutenant General Vesa Virtanen said, ‘Finland stands ready, and has done so for decades.’

Why it Matters

While the placement of troops and construction of new infrastructure to support more along the Finnish border does echo the pattern of activity Russia undertook before its invasion of Ukraine, the scale is vastly different. Based on the images, the increased activity amounts to a small fraction of the total military movement along Ukraine’s border prior to the invasion in 2022.

Following Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO, the Russian government threatened to take retaliatory measures. The increased military activity at Kamenka and other locations along Finland’s border suggest Moscow is making good on those threats. But the military activity along the Finnish border is only part of the story.

Poland, the Baltic states, Sweden, and Finland have all accused Russia of engaging in an escalating campaign of cyber-attacks, sabotage, and other covert but hostile acts in the past three years. While the evidence to support these claims is solid, none of it directly implicates Moscow. Russia has a long history of using such tactics to intimidate and destabilize adversaries, and Russian planners are skilled at carrying out covert operations in a way that leaves no direct ties to them. 

In addition to the nearly 800-mile-long border, Russia also shares an even longer history with Finland. The Soviet Union invaded Finland in 1939, and despite an overwhelming size advantage, Russian forces struggled in the harsh terrain and severe winter cold of the rugged Finnish border. Though Russian forces ultimately triumphed, the victory was slow, came at great cost, and illustrated how difficult the conquest of Finland can be. Bitter memories from The Winter War remain in the collective memories of both Russia and Finland.

How it Affects You

Though the number of Russian forces currently on the Finnish border are not nearly enough to launch an invasion, their presence is still troubling. Prior to the 1939 invasion, a staged incident provided the Soviet Union with a pretext to start the invasion of Finland. Russian forces operating in the same areas could also be utilized to stage similar incidents today or in the near future, providing Moscow with a new pretext to take further aggressive action against its neighbor.