The International Monetary Fund warned that a sharp reversal in artificial intelligence investment could weaken global growth, as borrowing and financial ties between technology companies amplify the consequences of disappointing returns.

Its World Economic Outlook forecasts 3.1% growth in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. In a downside scenario, however, falling AI investment and asset prices would leave global GDP 1.1% lower by 2028, with U.S. output down 1.8%. The fund highlighted arrangements in which AI companies invest in one another while committing to future purchases. Across 14 transactions reviewed, it identified about $300 billion in equity investments and $650 billion in debt since 2023, tied to $1.4 trillion in future revenue commitments.

Officials warned that weaker revenues could undermine valuations and make debt harder to service. Reduced investment would also affect trade: AI-related goods accounted for a substantial share of its recent expansion.

The IMF separately flagged rising government debt, higher bond yields, and cyberattacks as threats to financial stability. Attacks on major banks or technology providers could disrupt payments, trading, and access to deposits across interconnected systems.

AI’s economic importance extends far beyond whether the technology delivers useful products. Building the infrastructure has become a demand driver in its own right. A retreat or substantial dip would have serious consequences for the businesses supplying that expansion before its consequences reached the wider economy.

When companies invest in one another and promise future purchases, one firm’s expected revenue can depend on another’s continued access to capital. Therefore, disappointment can weaken several balance sheets at once, rather than remain confined to a single unsuccessful venture.

Borrowing adds another constraint, as investors can revise expectations overnight but borrowers still must make interest payments. Even commercially promising projects may face difficulties if revenue arrives later than financing plans require.

The IMF’s scenario is not a prediction that AI will fail. Rather, it illustrates how dependence on one industry boom can leave growth exposed even when the underlying technology has lasting value. Additionally, rising government borrowing could complicate the response by limiting room for support. The economic question is whether spending rests on revenues that materialize soon enough to sustain it.

Any slowdown in AI growth will be felt across industries, as businesses that supply equipment, construction, and services for the expansion could lose orders, affecting hiring and spending in their communities. Retirement savings offer another route for the effects to reach households.

Funds holding major technology companies may lose value in a correction, potentially making families more cautious about spending. That response could spread the slowdown to businesses with little direct connection to AI.

The IMF’s warning regarding cyberattacks poses a much greater risk to your finances. An outage at a provider serving several banks could interrupt payments and access to accounts across them, leaving customers with few alternatives. The same interconnected systems that make banking convenient can also spread disruption. Thus, an economy increasingly reliant on technology must be able to absorb both disappointing returns and failures in the systems it uses every day.