Houthi forces have rapidly advanced down Yemen’s western coast while simultaneously increasing attacks on Saudi Arabia. The Iranian-backed Houthis pushed southward along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, capturing territory previously controlled by forces associated with Yemen’s internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government.

The most significant victory came when the Houthis seized the port of Mokha, followed by Dhubab and Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Control of these locations gives the Houthis a far stronger position around the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, through which large quantities of oil and international commerce normally travel.

Territorial gains in Yemen could enable the Houthi to threaten Red Sea shipping routes that have become increasingly important as conflict has restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The offensive represents one of the biggest setbacks suffered by the Yemeni government in years.

Government forces blamed poor coordination and divisions among anti-Houthi factions for the collapse and are reportedly preparing a counteroffensive. The fighting has already killed large numbers of combatants and displaced civilians, threatening to reverse the relative calm that followed the 2022 ceasefire…

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At the same time, the Houthis have dramatically increased attacks against Saudi Arabia. On September 8, missiles and drones struck energy installations and other targets in southern Saudi Arabia, including facilities associated with Saudi Aramco around Abha, Najran, and Jizan. Saudi authorities said 73 people were injured. The Houthis said the strikes were retaliation for Saudi military operations in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline due to damage inflicted on oil infrastructure. Although the pipeline shutdown occurred amid the Houthi escalation, Saudi and other officials have said the drones involved in that particular attack apparently originated in Iraq, and no group immediately claimed responsibility. The distinction is important because the incident illustrates how the Yemen conflict is becoming intertwined with the broader confrontation involving Iran and Iranian-aligned organizations across the Middle East.

The East-West pipeline is crucial because it carries Saudi crude from eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly four million barrels per day have recently been moving through the route, which is roughly 4 percent of world oil supply. Saudi storage facilities at Yanbu may be able to sustain exports for only about five to seven days if the pipeline remains unavailable.

A prolonged shutdown could sharply tighten the global petroleum market. Oil prices have already climbed above $100 per barrel amid disruptions connected to the wider Middle East war. If both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remain threatened while Saudi Arabia’s principal bypass pipeline is restricted, consumers could face higher gasoline, diesel, and transportation costs, feeding inflation worldwide.

For Yemen, the Houthi victories could permanently alter the balance of power. Control of virtually the entire Red Sea coast would give the Houthi movement greater military, economic, and diplomatic leverage in any future peace negotiations.

The Houthi advances could also provoke a major Saudi-backed counteroffensive and transform what had been a partially frozen civil war into an active regional conflict. Yemen’s future, and increasingly the security of the world’s energy supply, may depend on whether the latest fighting can be contained before two of the planet’s most important maritime chokepoints become part of the same expanding war.

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