Yemen’s Houthi attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday. The Iran-aligned Houthi movement, which controls much of northern Yemen, said it used missiles and drones to target two Saudi-linked tankers that it accused of violating a newly declared maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities confirmed that at least one tanker, the Encelia, was struck and caught fire, although its crew was reported safe and no casualties were immediately announced.

The incident occurred near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and, ultimately, the Indian Ocean. Around 12 percent of global trade and roughly one-quarter of global container traffic normally travel through the Bab el-Mandeb passage annually.

The Houthi attack on Saudi tankers threatens to open a new front in the war against Iran, and potentially to ignite a larger, regional conflict in the Middle East. Disruptions to the Bab el-Mandeb passage could alter shipping costs, delay cargo deliveries, and place additional pressure on global energy markets. More shipping traffic could be diverted to the Suez Canal, which is already seeing increased traffic due to the war with Iran…

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The Houthis framed their campaign as retaliation for what they describe as Saudi Arabia’s blockade of Yemen and a recent strike on Sanaa’s airport. Coming just days after the Houhti threatened to carry out such attacks, the incident means the international community must regard future Houthi threats as credible. The attack risks reviving direct hostilities between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition after major fighting in Yemen largely subsided following a 2022 truce.

The attack is especially significant because Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its Red Sea export facilities to bypass instability in the Strait of Hormuz. That other maritime chokepoint, located between Iran and Oman, has faced severe disruption during the current U.S.-Iran conflict. Saudi crude can be transported across the kingdom through pipelines to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing exports to avoid the Persian Gulf. But a Houthi threat to ships using Red Sea ports could undermine that alternative route and leave Saudi oil shipments exposed from both directions.

Reuters reported that two Chinese supertankers carrying a combined four million barrels of Saudi crude were attempting to pass through Bab el-Mandeb amid the escalation, illustrating the importance of the route to Asian energy consumers. Shipping traffic through the strait has already declined, and even limited attacks can increase insurance costs, cause vessels to reroute, and discourage commercial companies from entering dangerous waters.

The Houthi strike gives Iran and its regional partners another potential source of leverage. If the Houthis can credibly threaten shipping in the Red Sea while Iran or Iranian forces pressure traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, two of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints could face simultaneous disruption. That could increase pressure on the United States, Saudi Arabia, European governments, China, and other major energy-importing countries to contain the conflict before it spreads further.

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