Former Russian President Warns Austria Not to Join NATO

What Happened?

Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev issued a statement warning Austria not to abandon its neutrality by becoming a member of NATO. Mr. Medvedev accused Austria’s Foreign Minister of being driven by herd instinct to follow Finland and Sweden into NATO, and warned that Russia would treat Austria like Sweden and Finland if it did join NATO.

Austria’s Foreign Minister, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, said ‘There is currently no majority in parliament or among the population in favor of joining NATO, but neutrality alone does not protect us.’ Currently Austria’s constitution requires neutrality, a point Mr. Medvedev cited in his statements. Recent public opinion polls in Austria show the majority of people strongly favor remaining neutral.

Why it Matters

With public opinion in Austria firmly against joining NATO, the question is why did a senior Russian official issue public threats to Austria over the mere mention of the possibility of Austria becoming a NATO member. 

The war between Ukraine and Russia has fundamentally changed the nature of relations between Russia and Europe. Before the war, Europe and Russia had their share of political differences, but politics was often subordinated to economics. Europe relied on relatively cheap Russia gas to keep its energy costs down, which in turn allowed Europe’s economy to grow. 

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Prior to 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe and Russia often had political spats but neither side took them very seriously as long as the gas kept flowing from Russia to Europe. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine Europe has moved away from importing Russian gas, even setting as a goal to completely stop Russian energy imports by 2030.

While Russia has been able to make up some of the difference by selling gas and oil to India and China, the loss of the market in Europe has hurt Russia’s energy revenues. Without the veneer of a mutually beneficial energy relationship, politics has moved from the backburner to the forefront of relations between European leaders and Moscow. 

Mr. Medvedev’s comments are an illustration of that change. European attitudes towards Russia have hardened as a result of the war in Ukraine for several reasons. Many Ukrainian refugees have fled to Europe, bringing with them stories of Russian atrocities. Those stories resonate with older Europeans who remember what life was like during the era of the Soviet Union. 

Meanwhile Russian officials no longer see any need to hold back criticisms of European leaders since they have already lost Europe as a market for energy exports. 

How it Affects You

The longer the war in Ukraine continues the more relations between Europe and Russia are likely to deteriorate. Though Austria is unlikely to join NATO, the Russian reaction to the mere possibility of such a move underscores how much similar moves by Finland and Sweden have stung Russian leadership.