Fewer Immigrants, More Income? New CBO Forecast Projects Higher Per Capita Gains Under Trump Policy

What Happened

A new economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office suggests that Trump’s immigration restrictions could raise income per person in the coming years.

The CBO’s updated projections reflect immigration limits set by the One Big Beautiful Act. The law is expected to reduce population growth through 2028, with 3.2 million fewer people in the U.S. than earlier estimates. This results in a slightly smaller economy overall. But with fewer people, per capita output is expected to rise.

The forecast projects U.S. GDP per person will be about 1% higher by 2028 compared with prior immigration levels. For a median household earning $70,000 a year, that translates to roughly $700 more annually by 2028.

In the short term, growth is slower. The CBO expects modest growth of 1.4% in 2025, partly due to tariffs dampening spending and investment. Growth is projected to rebound in 2026 and beyond. By 2028, the economy is expected to be slightly larger than earlier forecasts, even with fewer people.

Why It Matters

The forecast adds an economic angle to the immigration debate. Instead of focusing only on border security or labor supply, it highlights how immigration affects national income distribution.

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A smaller population sharing a similar or larger economy means more income per person. This framing may shift how voters and lawmakers view the tradeoffs of immigration limits.

The CBO notes these gains will build gradually and depend on consistent enforcement of restrictions. Tariffs and other trade measures, part of Trump’s broader economic policy, may drag on short-term growth even as the longer outlook improves.

It’s also important to note that not everyone benefits equally. Income gains may vary by industry, location, and education. Still, the numbers strengthen the argument that lower immigration could raise individual prosperity.

How It Affects You

For workers, the effect is simple: if the forecast holds, the average person may see more output behind each dollar they earn. That could mean slightly higher wages or stronger purchasing power, especially in industries where reduced labor supply drives up pay.

Businesses that rely on immigrant labor may face shortages or rising costs. This could offset some consumer gains through higher prices or reduced availability. By contrast, sectors less dependent on labor inflows — such as finance, energy, or manufacturing — may see efficiency gains and new investment.

The broader effects will vary across the economy. Some industries will benefit from tighter labor markets, while others may struggle with higher costs or slower growth potential.

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