Emerging Markets Are Splitting Into Two Stories

Emerging markets tend to get talked about as one big category.

In early 2026, that’s increasingly misleading.

What’s happening now is less about “emerging markets vs. developed markets” and more about which emerging markets are aligned with current global conditions — and which are working against them.

The Big Idea

Emerging markets are no longer moving as a group. Performance is being driven by currency stability, trade alignment, and local policy discipline — not broad risk appetite.

1. The EM Markets Holding Up Better

Several emerging markets have entered 2026 on relatively solid footing.

Countries with strong ties to U.S. trade and manufacturing have benefited from ongoing nearshoring trends. Mexico stands out here, supported by manufacturing investment and steady export demand tied to North America…

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Parts of Southeast Asia, including Vietnam and Indonesia, have also held up better than expected as companies continue diversifying supply chains away from single-country dependence.

In these markets, the story isn’t explosive growth — it’s stability. That matters more in the current environment.

(Sources: Reuters, World Bank commentary)

2. Where Pressure Is Still Showing

Other parts of the emerging-market world remain under strain.

Countries with heavy reliance on commodity exports or fragile currencies continue to feel the effects of tighter global financial conditions. Dollar strength over the past year has made debt servicing more expensive for nations that borrow in dollars.

Some regions in Latin America and parts of Eastern Europe are also navigating political and fiscal uncertainty that has kept capital cautious rather than enthusiastic.

This isn’t a sudden crisis — but it is a drag on momentum.

3. China’s Role Is Smaller — But Still Important

China no longer dominates the EM narrative the way it once did.

Growth there has been uneven, and global investors are treating China as its own category rather than a proxy for all emerging markets. That shift has reduced the “rising tide” effect China used to provide.

At the same time, China still influences commodity demand, regional trade flows, and sentiment — just not in a way that lifts all EM assets at once.

Quick Hits

• EM performance is increasingly country-specific
• Nearshoring has favored Mexico and parts of Southeast Asia
• Dollar strength still matters for EM debt and currencies
• China’s influence is more targeted than it used to be

What This Means for You

Emerging markets in 2026 aren’t about broad exposure — they’re about selectivity.

Markets tied to manufacturing, trade diversification, and stable currencies are behaving very differently than those dependent on capital inflows or commodity cycles alone.

Lumping all emerging markets together misses the point right now. The gap between relative winners and laggards is wider — and more persistent — than in past cycles.

If you follow EMs at all, it’s less about chasing rebounds and more about understanding why some regions are attracting steady capital while others aren’t.

Bottom line: Emerging markets aren’t struggling or thriving as a group.

They’re diverging.

And in early 2026, that divergence is the story worth paying attention to.

Until next time,

The Shortlysts Team

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