Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, defeated four-term Representative Haley Stevens by fewer than 15,000 votes in Michigan’s Democratic Senate Primary. He won roughly 48.5 percent to Stevens’s 47.5 percent after more than 1.5 million ballots were counted. He will now face Republican former congressman Mike Rogers in November for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.

Stevens had the backing of the Democratic establishment, including Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Peters, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. Outside organizations supporting Stevens spent more than $60 million in the primary. AIPAC and affiliated pro-Israel groups alone spent more than $30 million, their largest investment in a single race.

The race was a win for the Democratic Party’s progressive wing and a stinging defeat for the party’s establishment. With staunchly anti-Israel El-Sayed as the nominee in Michigan, U.S. support for Israel will likely become a more prominent issue in the final few months of the 2026 midterm elections, both in Michigan and nationally…

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Following enormous Democratic Party support for Stevens, El-Sayed countered with an unusually extensive grassroots campaign, visiting 110 Michigan cities, holding more than 500 events and developing a volunteer network his campaign said reached 12,000 people. He also received support from prominent progressives including Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, and Chris Van Hollen.

Israel became the sharpest dividing line in the race. El-Sayed has called for ending U.S. military assistance and weapons sales to Israel and has described Israeli conduct as involving ‘genocide and apartheid.’ Stevens, by contrast, defended Israel’s continued existence alongside a Palestinian state and presented herself as supportive of a two-state solution.

The Jewish Democratic Council of America opposed El-Sayed during the primary, while AIPAC invested heavily in defeating him. Conversely, his position helped attract progressive and Arab American support in a state containing one of America’s largest Arab and Muslim communities.

The results from Michigan could provide a glimpse of similar trends that could play out in November. Michigan Democrats suffered serious defections among Arab American voters in 2024, when anger over the Biden administration’s Israel policy helped Donald Trump make substantial gains in Dearborn and surrounding communities. El-Sayed could potentially bring some of those voters, along with younger progressives, back into the Democratic coalition.

Republicans will portray El-Sayed’s positions on Israel, Medicare for All, and other issues as too far left for a state Trump carried in 2024. His Israel position could also alienate some Jewish, moderate and independent voters. AIPAC has already indicated that it intends to oppose him in November.

Democrats have a legitimate shot at picking up Senate seats in Maine and Texas in November. Despite the fierce primary, Stevens has already endorsed El-Sayed, indicating that the Democratic strategy is to try to make Michigan their third potential Senate gain in 2026. If Democrats can win four additional Senate seats in November, they would regain the majority in the upper house of Congress.

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