The Department of Homeland Security says President Trump’s immigration enforcement campaign is helping reduce rents by removing undocumented migrants from crowded housing markets. DHS pointed to declines of 5.3% in Nashville, 4.8% in San Antonio, 4.3% in Austin, 4.2% in Phoenix, and 3% in Dallas and Houston. New Orleans recorded the largest cited drop at 8%.

The department maintained that states cooperating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement are reversing population pressures created by illegal immigration. The White House says more than 605,000 illegal immigrants have been deported since January 2025, and another 1.9 million have left voluntarily.

DHS did not identify the source or methodology behind its rent figures, and several percentages do not match public rental indexes. Zillow reports smaller year-over-year changes, including an $80 decline in San Antonio, $70 in Phoenix, $50 in Nashville, and $10 in Austin. Many cities cited by DHS also saw an apartment-building boom. Austin added 26,715 units, Dallas 28,958, and Phoenix 21,188, increasing competition among landlords as rental demand slowed. The findings are expected to be part of a working paper to be released by economists from the Dallas Federal Reserve.

Housing supply and immigration both affect rent, so the findings are sure to make headlines. Removing millions of people reduces demand for apartments and shared housing, and prices naturally fall. However, competing theories exist, notably increased construction…

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For example, Texas built more apartments than any other state after pandemic-era migration increased demand. Similar building surges occurred in Phoenix, Atlanta, Miami and Nashville. National asking rents have declined for 37 consecutive months as demand weakened, especially across the South and West.

While competing theories exist, and are undoubtedly swayed by political ideology, basic economics supports DHS’s argument. Fewer illegal immigrants means fewer people competing for a limited supply of apartments, particularly in cities where population growth pushed rents sharply higher.

While increased apartment construction certainly helped start the decline, lower immigration can help sustain it. Less competition for available units gives potential renters much more leverage, especially when leases renew. Rather than raising prices because every apartment attracts multiple applicants, landlords with vacancies must compete for tenants through lower rents or better terms.

A $100 monthly decline in New Orleans keeps $1,200 in a renter's pocket each year. The $80 drop in San Antonio equals $960, while Phoenix renters save $840. A softer market allows for these conditions and savings.

Landlords facing vacancies are more likely to accept a smaller increase, waive fees, or offer a free month as an extra incentive rather than lose a reliable renter. People moving may find that comparing several properties produces a better deal than signing the first available lease, effectively changing the balance of negotiations.

If reduced immigration, both legal and illegal, continues, it will give supply time to catch up after years when population growth outran construction. Renters should not need a permanent building boom just to keep prices stable.

Housing naturally becomes more affordable when existing residents no longer have to bid against a seemingly endless surge of new arrivals for the same limited number of homes, many of which are ready to pay inflated rent prices.

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