Conservative Karol Nawrocki Wins Poland’s Presidency in Tight Race

What Happened?

Conservative Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidency in a tight race that saw the final margin of victory defined by one percentage point. Mr. Nawrocki, who is 42 years old, previously led Poland’s Institute for National Remembrance, which is a historical research organization. He had not been elected to political office prior to winning the presidency. 

Yesterday’s vote was a runoff between the top two vote-getters in the first round on May 18. In the first round, liberal candidate and Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski received the most votes, but the results were still close enough to trigger a runoff under Polish law. 

Why it Matters

According to Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, ‘The mood in the country is not very good, and the main reason for Nawrocki’s victory was disappointment with the Tusk government.’ In Poland the national parliament and prime minister hold most of the governing power, but the president can veto legislation. 

Voter turnout was strong in Poland for Sunday’s runoff Presidential election race, with more than seventy percent of registered voters casting ballots. That’s an increase of nearly ten percent from the first round of voting which took place in May.

Nawrocki’s Law and Justice Party has led Poland’s government before, most recently from 2015 through 2023. During that time, the party backed stronger restrictions on abortion and supported more government control over the media. Mr. Nawrocki also holds different views on the war in Ukraine than Prime Minister Tusk, who has been more openly supportive of Ukraine.

While Mr. Nawrocki has not indicated he thinks Russia is not a threat to Poland, he does oppose Ukraine membership to NATO. The war in Ukraine remained a top issue in the election, as it has transformed public opinion in Poland. 

Especially in the east, Poland has become a country preparing for war. Substantial increases in defense spending have been passed by Poland’s parliament, and a bitter historical legacy of the Soviet invasion of Poland are still part of the collective memory held by most Poles. Which is why they view the Russian invasion of Ukraine with such alarm.

Prior to the German invasion of Poland in 1939, the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany signed a secret agreement to divide up Poland between them. The Molotov Ribbentrop Pact, named for the Soviet and German ambassadors who negotiated it, essentially gave Germany control of western Poland and the Soviet Union control of the east. Soviet troops invaded Poland and retained control until the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989. 

The brutal and repressive nature of Russian rule has not been forgotten by the people of Poland.

How it Affects You

The conservative victory in Poland’s presidency is a win for the Trump Administration, which has been backing Mr. Nawrocki. Poland’s conservatives are also more critical of many of the policies of the European Union, so yesterday’s results will likely give a boost to the far right in Europe.