Conflicting Reports About Kurdish Fighters in Northwestern Iran

What Happened?

Conflicting reports about Kurdish fighters entering northwestern Iran have created confusion and uncertainty about what is happening on the ground inside Iran. The Jerusalem Post published a story claiming that Kurdish fighters had invaded northwestern Iran, and they cited statements from the Trump Administration encouraging the Kurds to attack. 

A day later, France’s leading newspaper Le Monde (which means ‘The World’) published a story claiming that Kurdish fighters had threatened to invade northwestern Iran, but they had not actually done so as of Friday. With few independent sources able to communicate with the external world from inside Iran, the truth in northwestern Iran remains uncertain.

Why it Matters

Roughly ten percent of Iran’s population is Kurdish, and most Kurds live in the mountainous region of northwestern Iran and northeastern Iraq, which borders Iran. If Kurdish fighters did invade Iran, it would put additional pressure on the ruling regime by opening a new front in the current war.

Thus far, U.S. and Israeli forces have only launched air, drone, and missile attacks, but a ground attack from the Kurds would force Iran to divert scarce military resources to the northwest to counter it.

American and Israeli military strikes are designed to destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, and to topple its current government. But none of those objectives involve the seizure of Iranian territory.

A Kurdish assault on Iran would threaten Iran’s territorial integrity, and Iran would have to send ground forces to fight the Kurds, or else surrender Iranian land. Iran has already begun launching air and drone attacks against Kurdish forces near the Iranian border, a strong indication that Iran is prepared to defend its territory. 

Even though the Trump Administration has encouraged Kurdish fighters to attack Iran, the Kurds are likely wary of American promises. Several times before, in the past fifty years, the U.S. has hinted or promised the Kurds their own country, and every time, we failed to back up those promises with action.

Despite the probable reluctance, Australian news is reporting that several Kurdish groups have amassed thousands of fighters near the Iranian border and are preparing to attack Iran.

Those same Kurdish sources told Australian news agencies that the Kurds would attack Iran as soon as they had sufficient American and Israeli air support. No exact time was given, but if those reports are true, the Kurds could launch a ground attack within the next few weeks.

The Kurds are one of the largest ethnic groups in the world without their own country, and the desire for a Kurdish state could be strong enough to unite Kurdish groups in an attack on Iran.

How it Affects You

A ground invasion of Iran by Kurdish forces could do more than just increase pressure on the Iranian regime. If Iran’s territorial integrity is compromised, other neighboring countries might also seek to grab land for themselves, which could spread the war beyond the Middle East and bring about the collapse of Iran as a state.