China’s Birthrate Hits Lowest Number Since 1949

What Happened?

According to government data in Beijing, in 2025, China’s birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people, which is the lowest rate since record keeping began in 1949. At the same time, the death rate in China rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968. Overall, China’s population fell 3.39 million to reach 1.4 billion by the end of 2025, the fastest single-year decline in over ten years. 

China eliminated it’s one child policy in 2016, and recently Beijing began offering financial incentives to young people to get married and have children.

Why it Matters

India has eclipsed China as the world’s most populous nation, a title China held for well over a decade. According to demographic researchers at the United Nations, if the current population trends continue, by the year 2100, the total number of people living in China will be half of today’s total, which would be a drop from 1.4 billion to seven hundred million people. If those projections hold, every sector of society will be impacted in China, including the economy, military, and government. 

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China’s falling population growth mirrors a global trend. Globally, the rate of population growth for humans has been slowing, and projections currently show the population is expected to peak in the 2080s, near ten billion people, before beginning a sharp decline in the following decade.

The cause of slowing population growth varies from place to place, but in countries like China, the rising cost of living has made child rearing so expensive that many young people are deciding to remain childless. 

For countries with large workforces like China’s, falling population rates portend a host of problems for the future. Without enough workers to replace those who leave the workforce by retirement or dying, pension funds will not be able to remain solvent. Entire industries may face shortages of workers, which could force employers to rely more on robotics, automation, or AI in order to meet their production needs. 

As more young people move away from their parents and communities, the aging population left behind will likely face shortages of caregivers to help manage the healthcare challenges of old age, a phenomenon already being felt in places like the United States.

Government incentives to get people to marry and have children may not work because there is also a growing number of young people in China and across the world who view parenting as an impediment to the more carefree lifestyle they desire.

How it Affects You

China’s growing economic and military power are both threatened by falling population rates. If current trends continue, China may achieve superpower status only to see that slip away as the population shrinks and it doesn’t have enough workers or soldiers to sustain superpower status.

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