CBO Says Trump Administration Budget Bill Will Add $2.4 Trillion in Debt

What Happened?

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office calculated that the current federal budget bill proposed by the Trump Administration will add $2.4 trillion in debt over the next ten years. CBO also found that over a 10-year period, the ‘Big Beautiful Bill Act’ would decrease revenues by $3.7 trillion, while cutting net spending by $1.3 trillion — for a total of $2.4 trillion in new debt.

The legislation would also increase the number of people without health insurance by 9.1 million by 2034, CBO projected, including 7.8 million fewer covered due to the Medicaid changes.

Why it Matters

The Congressional Budget Office estimate may influence the final vote in the Senate, which means it could also help determine whether or not the bill passes. The CBO estimate also contradicts the claims by the Trump Administration that the bill will not add anything to the national debt.

The legislation, which President Trump referred to as a ‘big, beautiful bill’ passed the U.S. House of Representatives by a single vote and will likely face a similarly tough fight in the U.S. Senate. Pressure has been growing on the conservative wing of the Republican party to vote against the bill, or at least portions of it, because it adds significantly to the national debt. 

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has been one of the most vocal critics of the bill, who recently posted on X, ‘I want to see the tax cuts made permanent, but I also want to see the $5 trillion in new debt removed from the bill. At least 4 of us in the Senate feel this way.’

If four Republican Senators were to oppose the bill, that would put its passage in jeopardy. Currently Republicans hold 53 Senate seats to Democrats 47. Since Democrats are expected to universally oppose the bill in the Senate as they did in the House, four no votes by Republicans would leave only a two-vote margin to assure the bills passage in the Senate. Taken at face value, Senator Paul’s comments could mean there are others, since he said ‘at least four of us’ have objections to the bill.

In addition to opposition from conservatives, Elon Musk has criticized the budget bill as ‘an abomination.’ His comments may also sway the vote in the U.S. Senate. The Senate is expected to try to vote on the budget legislation by the 4^th of July.

How it Affects You

The sweeping legislation would bring about broad changes if it passes the U.S. Senate. In the lead up to the vote, the pressure is likely to grow on those Senators who have opposed the bill. Its passage will likely be determined by whether or not they stand by their objections or give in to the demands of the Trump Administration.