Armed Clashes Along Afghan-Pakistan Border Spark Fears of a Wider War

What Happened?

In the past week a series of armed clashes between Afghan security forces and Pakistan’s military along the border between the two countries has sparked fears of a larger conflict. Afghanistan’s government said at least twenty-three soldiers from Pakistan’s military had been killed along with Afghan soldiers. Pakistan said it had launched retaliatory strikes against militants along the Afghan-Pakistan border but did not specify who the targets were.

The violence along the Afghan-Pakistan border is the worst in over a decade, and the casualties on both sides are likely higher than what is being publicly reported. 

Why it Matters

The violence between Afghanistan and Pakistan could trigger a larger conflict between the two neighbors and destabilize central Asia. Military conflicts between Afghanistan and Pakistan have a long history, with numerous outbreaks of violence often centered on their mutual border. 

Pakistan has accused the Taliban government in Kabul of providing sanctuary to members of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the T.T.P. or Pakistani Taliban, whose attacks have killed hundreds of Pakistani security forces in recent years. Pakistan has also leveled accusations against India for providing arms and funding the T.T.P., and some of those accusations likely have merit. 

The relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is complex. Pakistan regards Afghanistan as a necessary ally to secure strategic depth, which refers to an increased battlespace to confront its main enemy, India. India has numerical superiority over Pakistan, and the idea of strategic depth is that if India ever attacked, Pakistan could be forced back initially, which would require using Afghan territory to regroup and counterattack.

Afghanistan has long been the recipient of funding and arms from Pakistan. Pakistan regards the Afghan Taliban as a useful ally against India, but sometimes Pakistan cannot control the actions of the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Taliban is not a single organization, but refers to a number of different groups, tribes, and factions. In the past Pakistan has rewarded the most extreme elements of the Taliban with more weapons and money, which put those elements of the Taliban in a position to dominate the others.

On paper Pakistan’s military should have little trouble handling the Afghan Taliban, but in practice Pakistani military forces have often done poorly in battle against their Afghan neighbors. Since many of the conflicts take place closer to Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban often use their superior knowledge of the local terrain and conditions to defeat numerically larger Pakistani military forces.

How it Affects You

Neither Kabul nor Islamabad are much concerned about the deaths of a few dozen troops, but they do value their mutually beneficial relationship which provides money and arms to Kabul and additional security to Pakistan against India. The historical pattern has been to find a way to settle things down after a few rounds of violence have run their course, and that will likely apply now.