Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have signed a new mutual-defense agreement that may reshuffle security relationships across the Middle East and beyond. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement was signed on August 7th by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Under the pact, any armed attack against any member will be considered an attack against all three. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan compared the arrangement to NATO’s Article 5, although the countries would still consult over what assistance to provide during a conflict. A new ministerial committee will develop those details, while a permanent secretariat will be established in Saudi Arabia.

The three countries bring considerably different strengths to the alliance. Pakistan contributes a nuclear arsenal and powerful military capabilities. Turkey has the second largest standing army in NATO, while Saudi Arabia adds enormous financial resources and its longstanding security relationship with Washington. Erdoğan also wants the alliance expanded beyond its founding members, with Egypt already identified as a potential future participant.

The pact creates a new center of military power in a region where security has traditionally been heavily dependent on the United States. Saudi Arabia now has two other partners to rely on for protection, in addition to its partnership with Washington.

Turkey gains greater influence outside NATO while Pakistan gains a more formal role in Middle Eastern security. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal also gives the partnership a strategic advantage few regional alliances can match…

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The unanswered question is how far the three countries will actually go for one another during a crisis. The agreement resembles NATO’s Article 5 on paper, but members still have to determine what assistance an attack would trigger.

Its credibility will depend on joint military planning and clear procedures for responding to conflict. Expansion could complicate things, as Erdoğan has already identified Egypt as a potential member. A larger alliance could prompt Israel, India, Greece and Cyprus to deepen their own security relationships in response.

A new security arrangement involving three major U.S. partners will affect how much Washington is expected to police the Middle East. If Saudi Arabia and other regional powers become more capable of managing their own defense, future U.S. leaders may face less pressure to commit American troops and resources whenever tensions escalate.

However, the other possibility is that these new alliances will create new obligations and rivalries. A confrontation involving one member could force Washington to navigate competing relationships with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel and other partners. Americans could see those tensions surface through military deployments and diplomatic disputes that otherwise might have remained regional.

The alliance is going to have repercussions for the U.S. diplomatically as well as its place in the region. While Washington could gain capable partners willing to shoulder more of the security burden, these same countries would also have greater freedom to pursue their own interests without waiting for U.S. approval.

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